Northern governors unlikely to back Atiku in 2027, says Wike aide

Lere Olayinka, senior special assistant on public communications to Federal Capital Territory Minister Nyesom Wike, told reporters that northern governors eyeing the presidency in 2031 will not support ADC candidate Atiku Abubakar in the 2027 election. Olayinka explained that these governors fear backing a candidate who could potentially serve two terms, allowing the presidency to shift back to the South for another eight years. He warned Nigerians not to be misled into thinking the North will rally behind Atiku.

In an interview with AIT, Olayinka emphasized that serving governors who plan a presidential run in 2031 are unlikely to risk their own ambitions by endorsing Atiku now. “People who want to be President, serving governors now who believe that in the next four years the presidency will come to the North and I can give it a try, so they would want Atiku to try so that they will wait for eight years of Atiku and the presidency will come back to the South? They will now wait for 16 years? They will not,” he said. The logic, he argued, is that supporting Atiku could extend the dominance of southern politicians for a generation, a scenario most northern aspirants want to avoid.

Olaywala’s remarks also touched on the broader political calculus shaping alliances ahead of the 2027 poll. He claimed that politicians across party lines are converging on a common goal: backing President Bola Tinubu for a second term. According to Olaywala, this alignment is not limited to Wike’s “Rainbow Coalition” but includes members of APGA, Accord and even the APM, whose candidate has publicly expressed support for Tinubu’s re‑election. “Most people in other parties like APGA, Accord, even the APM that has a candidate have said they are supporting the President. So, it’s not just Wike but I understand because Wike is a name and a phenomenon and people must talk about him, but other people are doing the same thing that he is doing,” he noted.

The aide’s analysis reflects a long‑standing pattern in Nigerian politics where regional power‑sharing agreements influence endorsement decisions. Historically, northern and southern leaders have negotiated informal pacts to rotate the presidency, seeking to balance ethnic and regional interests. Olaywala suggests that the prospect of an eight‑year Atiku administration threatens to tilt that balance heavily toward the South, prompting northern governors to protect their future prospects by staying neutral or aligning with Tinubu’s camp instead.

Political observers note that the 2031 presidential ambition of several northern governors is already shaping their current strategies. By refusing to back Atiku now, they aim to preserve a clear path for their own bids later, avoiding any perception that they facilitated a long southern tenure. This stance also positions them to negotiate favorable terms in any future power‑sharing arrangement, ensuring that when the 2031 election arrives, they can claim a more decisive role without the baggage of having helped a candidate extend southern dominance.

While Olaywala’s statements spotlight the tactical calculations of northern governors, they also underline the growing influence of President Tinubu’s coalition beyond the Federal Capital Territory. The “Rainbow Coalition,” a term used by Wike’s office to describe a broad alliance of regional leaders, appears to be rallying support for Tinubu’s second term across party lines. This cross‑party endorsement, according to Olaywala, reflects a collective ambition that transcends individual party platforms, focusing instead on maintaining continuity of the current administration’s policies.

The reaction from Atiku’s camp has been muted, with party officials declining to comment on Olaywala’s claims. However, political analysts suggest that the ADC may need to reassess its outreach strategy in the North if the governor bloc remains steadfast in its non‑support stance. Building a viable coalition without the backing of key northern figures could prove challenging, especially given the entrenched regional loyalties that shape voter behavior in federal elections.

As the 2027 election draws nearer, the narrative around northern governors’ support, or lack thereof, will likely become a focal point of campaign discourse. Olaywala’s comments have already sparked debate on social media platforms, with many Nigerians questioning whether regional considerations should outweigh policy proposals. The upcoming months will reveal whether the predicted alliance with Tinubu materialises fully, or if new political dynamics emerge that could alter the balance of power ahead of both the 2027 and 2031 contests.

The next step, according to Olaywala, is for the public to remain vigilant and not be swayed by assumptions about northern support for Atiku. He urged citizens to scrutinise political statements and to recognise the strategic motives behind governor endorsements. With the election calendar set and alliances still forming, the statements made today will shape the political landscape that Nigerians will deal with in the years to come.